Open source you share. Proprietary you buy. Maxim Khailo argues the next era is software you can’t buy at all—and states the one condition that would end it. Plus why a deployed model doesn’t learn, and the energy bill under every agent fleet.

Chapters

1. 0:00 Why I wanted to talk to Maxim

2. 1:14 From HERE Maps and a quant fund to the limits of deep learning

3. 11:18 What has actually changed since 2012 — and what hasn’t

4. 15:13 How we got here, and why a deployed model doesn’t learn

5. 25:25 100 million agents would draw the entire energy of the UK

6. 26:13 Where does the harness end and the model begin?

7. 31:50 Thetix, and what efficient context actually buys you

8. 40:20 Why the CLI became the operating system for agents

9. 51:37 “We’re entering the era of private software”

10. 57:41 The caveat — this only holds while the tokens keep flowing

11. 1:00:02 The energy crunch underneath all of it

12. 1:05:52 Is there a moat in the models?

13. 1:13:17 Closed-loop learning, and the hardware it will take

14. 1:28:24 Agent fleets, and where orchestration breaks down

15. 1:43:01 The Seattle boom, and what Maxim is most worried about losing

Timed transcript · Full show notes and sources

Disclosure

Adil Wali is an investor in Thetix. Maxim Khailo is associated with the company, and it is discussed in the episode from 31:49.

AI can make one engineer feel 100x faster. Jared Green explains why companies aren’t becoming 100x more effective—and why the bottleneck moves into review, coordination, technical debt, and the systems around abundant code.

Chapters

1. 0:00 When code becomes abundant, what stays scarce?

2. 1:36 Why enterprise AI transformation stalls

3. 5:37 How to measure AI productivity

4. 9:29 The human pace car

5. 12:36 Jared’s unconventional path into engineering

6. 26:53 Microsoft, Windows Phone, and choosing the hard problem

7. 39:33 What AI changes about talent and teams

8. 45:51 The new operating model for AI engineering

9. 49:56 AI slop, engineering waste, and technical debt

10. 54:12 Are humans the bottleneck?

11. 59:10 Why Jared started Autar

12. 1:03:29 Stop shifting work. Eliminate it.

13. 1:13:16 Does AI absorb the next constraint?

14. 1:17:36 Do junior engineers still have a future?

15. 1:26:16 Leaving Big Tech to become a founder

16. 1:40:49 Where LLMs may hit their limits

Timed transcript · Full show notes and sources

Disclosure

Adil Wali is an investor in Autar. Jared Green is Autar’s founder, and the company is discussed in the episode.

The market erased roughly $272 billion from ten durable SaaS companies while assigning more than $1 trillion to frontier AI labs. I explain why that trade may be underestimating systems of record, authority, and operational moats.

Chapters

1. 0:00 Most people are getting the AI trade wrong

2. 2:36 Rebuilding software is not replacing it

3. 3:49 Retention is evidence—not the conclusion

4. 4:51 The capital inversion

5. 6:46 Models have context; systems hold durable state

6. 8:32 CRM—the durable record and disappearing interface

7. 11:10 Three possible winners in CRM

8. 15:20 Installed does not mean economically central

9. 15:47 ERP and the authority moat

10. 17:25 Marketing—abundant creation versus the learning loop

11. 18:54 The strongest counterargument

12. 20:06 Keep the system of record model-neutral

13. 21:44 Training costs and distillation

14. 23:53 Diminishing returns on intelligence

15. 24:49 The operator test—state, permission, and feedback

16. 25:30 Predictions and what would prove me wrong

17. 27:22 The investment implications

18. 29:23 The question for software in the AI era

Timed transcript · Full show notes and sources

Sources

• Salesforce FY2026 Form 10-K — U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: Salesforce reported trailing attrition of approximately 8%; the metric excludes Slack self-service and current-year acquisitions.

• ServiceNow 2025 Form 10-K — U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: ServiceNow reported a 98% ACV-based renewal rate. Its definition can count ordinary downsells as renewed.

• Workday FY2026 Form 10-K — U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: Workday reported approximately 97% gross revenue retention, excluding expansion.

• HubSpot 2025 Form 10-K — U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: HubSpot reported approximately 88% gross customer-dollar retention and changed its treatment of partner commissions in 2025.

• Workiva 2025 Form 10-K — U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: Workiva reported 97.2% gross revenue retention and 112.8% net revenue retention for 2025.

• New sales agents in Microsoft 365 Copilot — Microsoft: A concrete example of a seller working through an agent while Dynamics 365 or Salesforce remains the underlying record.

• HubSpot agents move to outcome pricing — HubSpot: Customer Agent and Prospecting Agent are priced by resolved conversation or recommended lead rather than only by access.

• Salesforce FY2026 fourth-quarter results — Salesforce: Early Agentforce bookings were primarily expansion within Salesforce's installed base.

• Workday FY2026 investor presentation — Workday: Scale and embeddedness evidence for the ERP and HCM discussion.

• Claude Cowork research preview — Simon Willison: January 12, 2026 is the base date used for the market comparison. The episode says “since,” not “because of.”

Disclosure

This episode reflects my personal analysis and investment views. I own and may buy or sell positions in public and private technology companies discussed here. The market comparison uses different pricing mechanisms and valuation dates for public companies and private AI labs, so it is directional rather than a synchronized index. This is not investment advice.

I rebuilt the product of a startup I invested in, then measured exactly what 471 million processed tokens, 64 prompts, and a week of judgment actually bought.

Chapters

1. 0:00 471 million tokens

2. 0:20 Why I invested in Thetix

3. 2:26 The product today — and where the job breaks

4. 5:00 The product experience I rebuilt

5. 8:20 How it was actually built

6. 9:11 The receipt — tokens, time, and prompts

7. 10:28 The shape of the work

8. 13:36 What still has to be proven

Timed transcript · Full show notes and sources

Sources

• The S&P 500 and Trump Accounts — S&P Dow Jones Indices: S&P 500 total return figures through December 31, 2025.

• Nasdaq-100 Total Return Index fact sheet — Nasdaq: Ten-year return through June 30, 2026; a different window from the S&P figure.

• World Wealth Report 2026 — Capgemini: U.S. high-net-worth population as defined by investable assets.

• Survey of Consumer Finances — Federal Reserve: Direct ownership of publicly traded stock among U.S. families.

Disclosure

I’m an investor in Thetix. That’s part of why I care enough to go this deep. The redesign shown is an independent exploration, not an announced Thetix feature. Nothing here is investment advice; every portfolio example is product analysis.